tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15405788.post1392009797952789583..comments2024-01-04T07:33:10.137-05:00Comments on Seldom Wrong, Never in Doubt: After Another Dismal Day for StocksJon A. Alfred E. Michael J. Wile E. SWNIDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04595651777890086293noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15405788.post-40563382650615774702008-10-10T10:33:00.000-04:002008-10-10T10:33:00.000-04:00The past is largely what we have to go on for the ...The past is largely what we have to go on for the future. And here the focus is not on specific market behaviors but on economic situations over time: that panics, crashes and recessions are followed by periods of growth.<BR/><BR/>It would be futile to use the past to pick a bottom or predict a specific rally, or lack thereof, to time the market. But it's perfectly reasonable to say that unless human nature changes, production, innovation and exchange will be restored and will move forward.<BR/><BR/>For the conclusion that this will hold true we rely not just on the past of the markets but on our estimate of the nature of human behavior as often irrational and herd-like but nevertheless adaptable and resourceful over time.<BR/><BR/>And we'll conjecture that right now the buyers are the people who will end up winning, even if they don't exactly pick the bottom of the market.Jon A. Alfred E. Michael J. Wile E. SWNIDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04595651777890086293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15405788.post-64549346393859760662008-10-09T20:35:00.000-04:002008-10-09T20:35:00.000-04:00The question for me is whether the past has anythi...The question for me is whether the past has anything to do with the future. What if we are in uncharted territory and all comparisons to the past have little explanatory power, providing no direction for investors? <BR/><BR/>Many are saying that our satistical models which are dependent on past events are unable to deal with the multilayered nature of current economics realities. <BR/><BR/>Nassim Taleb talks about the statistical regress fallacy which is believing that the probability of future events is predictable by examining occurrences of past events.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com