Saturday, June 30, 2007

Cincinnati Census Figures Now Measure Political Influence

So in the Census Bureau's annual conjecture, Cincinnati is gaining about three residents per day.

SWNID offers a half-sincere cheer for this development. Here's why.

These figures are thoughtful, careful, but untested. Our understanding is that the bureau starts with the estimates of state population, breaks that out as counties, and then breaks out the municipalities from the counties.

In this formulation, Ohio's Hamilton County was deemed to be losing residents. On the next level, Cincinnati was deemed to be adding residents. Because Cincinnati's addition is in the context of Hamilton County's subtraction, that means that Hamilton County's suburbs must be deemed to be losing population at a disturbing pace.

We're sure that's true for some places like Lockland, Lincoln Park and Elmwood Place. But those bottoming-out inner-ring suburbs aren't sufficient to balance the whole.

We therefore hypothesize that the Census Bureau gave Cincinnati a plus not just because trendy downtown apartments and East End condos are bringing young singles and empty nesters to the urban core. We believe that they didn't like getting whacked by Mark Mallory's protest of last year's figures showing a loss, which they subsequently revised to a small gain.

Too bad for them. Mallory is still protesting these figures.

So too are the Hamilton County Commissioners.

So now the Census Bureau has two political headaches. They can't win.

We pose this question as our conclusion: if overpopulation is the problem, why are people so anxious to have more neighbors?

No comments: