Gentle readers, the time has come to skip the secondary sources and read the primary sources.
The actual text of H.R. 1585, Amendment 2208, which runs to a mere 18 pages of double-spaced, wide-margined text, is available as a PDF here, where one can even view the penned-in corrections and revisions. Of this much balleyhooed Republican "defection" on Iraq, we note that it in fact does a couple of very straightforward and sensible things.
One is to acknowledge that whatever the security situation within Iraq, a political solution is also necessary. It thoughtfully avoids the false choice rhetoric, decrying only a "merely military solution." Hence, it in effect looks beyond the effect, whatever they prove to be, of Petraeus's "surge" to what must happen next. And that "next" is a focus on training Iraqi Security Forces, protecting borders and trade routes like the Persian Gulf, and squishing nascent terrorist camps, all the while demonstrating a permanent commitment of US forces to the security of the Middle East. It is not the redeployment of all US Forces to their stateside bases.
Another is to leave with the President the responsibility to present a plan for reducing American forces and enabling the Iraqi Security Forces to assume their proper role. In doing so, it explicitly acknowledges that the plan should assess the likelihood that American forces will be necessary to shore up deficiencies in the ISF for some time to come. Along the way, the bill acknowledges that any draw-down of American forces from Iraq will require many months to implement.
In effect, Lugar-Warner allows the President and the Joint Chiefs to decide when the "surge" is over, but to do so with a measure of public discussion that amplifies the light at the end of the tunnel. Not bad.
We opined earlier that Dick Lugar was driven by the concern that the Pelosi-Murtha surrender lobby will at some point garner enough political support to force a precipitous, disastrous withdrawal. We think that the actual text of this amendment, versus reports about it that seem to come from reporters who haven't read it, supports that notion. Lugar wants the next step made clear enough and announced (not necessarily implemented) soon enough to defang the this-is-no-fun-so-let's-quit movement.
We think that the President has pretty close to what he needs in this bill. We think that's why Harry Reid was so quick to dismiss it. Lugar-Warner is not the leave-now-and-forget-the-consequences routine that is Democrat dogma, looking to establish a permanent political majority based on blame for a military debacle.
If Bush can play this cool, and if a few Ds from purple states can find their way clear to vote for it, the bill can pass, leaving the Ds with months to wait before they can beat their favorite drum again. More importantly, it can buy the time needed to keep working on this peace-and-freedom thing that matters so much.
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