Wednesday, March 05, 2008

The Morning After: SWNID Pontificates

Our SWNIDish observations on political matters local and national following yesterday's highly significant primaries:

  • Locally, the most obvious effect of the highly contested Democratic Party Presidential Primary is the passage of the Cincinnati Public Schools tax levy. Such could not happen without the large number of Democrats who came out to vote for their preferred liberal Their natural inclination being to ratify taxes for just about any purpose, the levy squeaked by despite little campaigning and much high-profile opposition. As a qualified fan of CPS, we take ironic pleasure in this outcome.
  • In essence, McCain won all the primaries last night on both sides. He can now depend on the Dems to continue to go negative on each other, giving his campaign staff plenty of footage that they can assemble next fall for their own ads. He can also depend on the Democrats' slugfest to awaken grouchy conservatives to the stark reality that he is not just their only choice in November but is a fundamentally better choice than enduring four years of a left-wing executive with a congressional majority. The fight between the Democrats will both split them and energize their opponents, in other words.
  • Hillary still can't possibly win the nomination outright on the first ballot, but Obama likewise has a tough road to a majority of delegates if she continues to run and to capture around half of the committed delegates that remain to be chosen. This leaves the Dems with a nomination that must be decided by its own rules and its own leadership, the so-called superdelegates. But given the Democrats' proclivity to fighting about their rules and litigating election results, we think that the most interesting bets are on the proposition that before all this is over, Hillary and Obama will end up in court over something, perhaps the standing of delegates from Michigan and Florida. We wonder whether Vegas bookmakers are taking bets on that. We also expect this spectacle further to damage the party of the left.


PS/SWIND said...

I think what last night also locked up is the Democratic ticket. It will be either Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama. At this point I don't think one could run without the other without their being major fallout within the Dems.

Pat Rock said...

A quick history lesson. The democratic party lost all elections in the 20th century that followed contentious conventions.

1968, 1972, and 1980 come to mind.

Obama and Clinton continuing to slug it out is a train wreck for the hopes of the Democrats winning in 2008. A year that should have been a slam dunk for them.

It never ceases to amaze me the ways that this party can figure out how to fail. Noses, faces, and spite.

I'm writing in Eugene McCarthy.

Jon A. Alfred E. Michael J. Wile E. SWNID said...

1964 was also contentious for the Dems, with an alternate, integrated delegation from Mississippi that demanded to be certified and threatened to split the Democratic coalition of northern liberals, organized labor and Southern segregationists. That one they managed to win in a landslide, against a feisty Republican senator from Arizona of all people.

History gives pause to this devoted Republican. But we remain hopeful for our cause.

pat rock said...

1964 was LBJ though. In spite of the problems at the convention you still had a Dead President's VP running.

I think you have to count '64 as an outlier because of the circumstances.

But your objection is duly noted.

Here's my prediction. McCain can beat Clinton, but would be in the fight of his life against Obama.

I still think McCain wins... But in a world where Eli Manning is superbowl champion I guess anything is possible.

KevinK1261 said...

Actually an online poll conducted last weekend has McCain 55%, Obama 45%.

Who McCain picks as a running mate may be a key factor in bringing back the conservatives who have said they would not vote for him.

Jon A. Alfred E. Michael J. Wile E. SWNID said...

Pat, you are entirely correct. 1964 was Johnson's year.

And to all, it's a very long time until November 4. 244 days, to be exact, if we count correctly.

willytribs said...

In regards to Clinton/Obama, Obama/Clinton, I do not foresee any circumstance that would lead to that ticket. If anything that Obama says rings true, distance from HC would be the only choice he has. For HC (who will not receive the nomination unless her machine is able to somehow convince the DNC to seat MI and FL) Obama would seem to be a great running mate should he accept.
If option two results, Ralph Nader will actually get votes this time.

chris said...

There I was Tuesday night. Rooting for Hillary. I would never have believed it could be true. At any rate, I can't help but enjoy watching the democrat candidates (each from or representing my state actually), beat up on each other.

I met Obama once, and he seemed like a nice person, but if I had to choose, I'd rather see Hillary as president. But let's pray for McCain.

Guy named Courtney said...

I sit here praying for a revote here in Michigan, so I can cast my vote for "that woman" to help further push along this circus even further!

Anonymous said...

If the dems let FL and MI have a do over, what's to keep other states from wanting one too? Now that Edwards and couple other nameless losers are out of it.