Unemployment for the Math Impaired

Yes, the recession is bad. Today's unemployment figures for January certainly demonstrate as much. Unemployment at 7.6% is not good.

But we caution again about the media's "worst since" rhetoric. This time it's the worst since 1974. But that worst is in raw numbers--the number of jobs eliminated--not percentage of the workforce.

Here's a glimpse of where unemployment rates went in that dismal period:

1974-05-01 5.1
1974-06-01 5.4
1974-07-01 5.5
1974-08-01 5.5
1974-09-01 5.9
1974-10-01 6.0
1974-11-01 6.6
1974-12-01 7.2
1975-01-01 8.1
1975-02-01 8.1
1975-03-01 8.6
1975-04-01 8.8
1975-05-01 9.0

Note that the end of 1974 saw monthly increases in the rate of unemployment of 0.6% and 0.9%, as compared to the monthly increase of 0.4% in January.

And here's where unemployment rates peaked more recently:

1982-08-01 9.8
1982-09-01 10.1
1982-10-01 10.4
1982-11-01 10.8
1982-12-01 10.8
1983-01-01 10.4
1983-02-01 10.4
1983-03-01 10.3
1983-04-01 10.2
1983-05-01 10.1
1983-06-01 10.1
1983-07-01 9.4

All of which is to say that yes it's bad, and it could get worse, but it's not yet as bad as "worst since" might suggest.