Bush Auto Move Is Classic Political Poker

Dubya's announcement that he's authorizing loans from TARP funds for the Penniless Two of the Big Three will be variously analyzed today and hereafter. We instantly dub it "classic Dubya."

The move is typical of what "compassionate conservatism" came to mean in the Bush administration: put a conservative twist on an actions that the Democrats would otherwise take, per their ideology and special-interest commitments, in an unproductive direction, thereby stealing their political thunder and moderating actions that they would otherwise take..

No Child Left Behind was a previous example. Rather than insist that primary and secondary education be administered locally, the doctrinaire conservative position, Bush conceded a federal role in oversight but infused it with conservative values of accountability and kept the federal price tag lower than his Democratic partners wanted. Hence, the weeping and wailing of "unfunded mandates" in NCLB, pledges from the left to overturn the hated legislation, and the likely reality that the law will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Bush got enforceable standards for public education, which is what he aimed for.

Now we have a scenario in which congressional negotiators were unable to get the UAW to agree to a date certain when they would concede new terms making their workers' wages competitive with the nonunion factories in the US serving so-called foreign manufacturers. UAW prez Ron Gettlefinger doubtless believed that his Obamanoid buds would give him more favorable terms come January.

Enter Bush, who has essentially pre-empted Obama, keeping the price of the bailout reasonable, forcing the unions to come to terms and framing the issue over financial viability (i.e. making cars people will buy at a price that provides a profit to the company), not "building green cars of the future" or some other line that sounds like an "Ask Dr. Science" farce. The bluffs have been called.

Yes, we know that there are lots of ways this might not work. Gettlefinger and the UAW doubtless hope they can somehow get the Big Three to return to Obama in January and get better terms for the union. They may well try that. But Obama faces the formidable task of justifying such a move in the wake of Bush's pre-emption. We don't see how he could sell the notion of bigger loans with lesser concessions. And we doubt he'd be willing to spend his political capital on such a scheme when he has ambitious plans for other "stimulus" legislation.

Politically this approach hasn't won much for Bush. Conservatives are disgruntled with him and the left hates him apocalyptically. In policy terms, he's managed to steer things in a more moderate and productive direction than would otherwise have been possible. In this case, Bush got a plan that forces the issue toward reasonable resolution, or in his words, "an orderly bankruptcy."