Michael Barone has been backing off earlier prognostications that the Rs will hold both houses of Congress. But he's unrelenting in his assessment of the body politic as a whole.
In the eyes of the principal coauthor of the Almanac of American Politics, 2006 will not represent realignment to the Ds. The shift will be too small (the race will be close and the margin small), is not based on new ideas from the opposition party (the minimum wage is the centerpiece, and it's been around since 1938), and is unlikely to sustain itself into 2008 (Ds poll way, way behind Rs for the White House).
If that sounds like a lot of things you've read from SWNID, it's because Barone is also Seldom Wrong.
If the election becomes a referendum on Bush's job performance (an assessment that Barone calls unfair in light of history, again a SWNID topos) or a response to voters' fatigue with the fatigued Republicans (again familiar), the effect will be temporary.
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