Take this as a comment on the present more than a prediction of the future, though formally it is the latter.
The Democratic Party will nominate Hillary Clinton for President and Barak Obama for Vice President. The Republicans will nominate John McCain for President and Like Anyone Will Care for Vice President.
The Democrats will win.
This is our reading of the present trends and present polls, which we divine as follows:
- Hillary's "finding her voice" by sobbing a sob in New Hampshire has captured the soft hearts of the Democrats. She will surely turn to her erstwhile opponent to tap into his power over the wealthier, younger and more idealistic elements of her party, plus the independents that he brings along.
- McCain is the only R who shows an ability to get votes nationwide. He's first choice for a lot of the GOP and second for everyone else. No one else can conjure up enough traction to overcome that.
- This sets us up for a replay of 1996, with McCain in the role of Bob Dole as Old Republican Senator and Clinton in the role of Clinton.
- Voters get tired of Republicans after a few terms. Republicans tell people to be responsible. After awhile, we'd rather be taken care of, just what the Democrats offer. Now is one of those times.
3 comments:
Once again in polite dissent, I offer the following:
-John McCain is unlikely to get the nomination because most Republicans can't stand him. He won in NH with the help of Independents and Democrats. He may win SC today with the help of an unusually large veteran population. Everywhere else, where only Republicans vote for the GOP candidate, he loses.
-SMR (SWNID's Man Rudy) may very well cash in on his FL + Super Tuesday strategy. He's been in Florida a long time, and if he wins, he'll have a lot of headlines going into Super Tues. Rudy beats Hillary.
-Much of the Obama enthusiasm is anti-Hillary, and if she's at the top of the ticket, much of it will be deflated. The anti-Hillary sentiment (which increases in direct proportion to her exposure, which would increase in a general campaign) will not only bring out every eligible Republican, but a host of independents to vote against her (she ran against "Nobody" in MI, and "Nobody" got 40%).
-Obama continues to get endorsements from prominent Democrats who formerly worked with the Clintons. He still has a real shot at beating her.
-The effects of the sobbing episode will dissipate as she continues to give boring, uninspiring speeches, and she'll be unable to use the moist eyes and shaky voice again without backlash.
-Expect the eventual GOP candidate to have success over a months-long general campaign, with the theme, "What Has My Opponent Really Done to Qualify for POTUS?" Rudy, McCain, Romney, and even Huck can point to legitimate success at running something. None of the remaining Dems can.
Chin up!
Between the prophecies of SWNID and Leather Wii, I choose None of the Above, and I will be proved right.
If Obama becomes Hillary's running mate, he will have completely sold his soul. (Actually, in order to rise to the level he has in Chicago politics he must have already taken out a mortgage on it.)
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