The NY Times Election Guide tally of US Senate races belies the paper's tone about the upcoming election. Specifically, it shows:
40 Senate races "safe" for Ds (including uncontested seats)
8 Senate races "leaning" to Ds
3 Senate races "toss ups"
2 Senate races "leaning" to Rs
47 Senate races "safe" to Rs
This means that to prevail in the Senate, Democrats must take all the races that lean to them and all the toss-ups (including NJ, which is currently in their hands). Fail once, and they need to pick up one of two races that lean R. N.B. that "lean Democrat" in this case can mean very thin polling margins, like Brown's in Ohio, definitely subject to turnout.
In the House, the situation is about the same:
190 seats "safe" for Ds (all contested, for those who forget the constitution)
23 seats "leaning" to Ds
13 seats "toss ups"
22 seats "leaning" to Rs
187 seats "safe" for Rs
Again, for minimal control, the Ds need safes plus leaners plus five of thirteen toss-ups.
The sheer closeness of it all probably explains why, to much press coverage, the RNC stopped writing checks for Mike DeWine. DeWine enjoys a personal fundraising advantage over Brown that may allow him to prevail. But holding Senate "toss ups" will be the focus of the national dough, as holding just one will prove decisive. And DeWine's race leans to Brown.
Again, we believe that many indicators point to low turnout, in which case effective get-out-the-vote efforts will tip some elections. That's why we still hold elections.
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