Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Landslide or Dead Heat? Pick Your Poll

NBC/WSJ has Obama up by ten percent among registered voters.

Meanwhile, AP/GfK has Obama up by one percent among likely voters.

Take your pick, knowing that models of likely voters tend to be more accurate than surveys of registered voters yet understanding that the surge in registrations and enthusiasm for Obama among marginalized groups this year may change who turns out. On the art and science of polling, check out Michael Barone's public seminar on the subject.*

We'll make this observation: it wouldn't be this close again for the Dems if they could manage to nominate a for-real moderate-to-conservative. They have plenty of them at the local level, but they can't get through the gauntlet of far-left interests that hold the Democrats' purse.

Both Obama and McCain were going to change politics this year. Instead, politics changed them, and we've got what looks like the third iteration of Bush v. Gore.

*P.S. We thank Rupert Murdock and his minions at WSJ for continuing to leave a copy on our driveway each day this week even though our subscription ran out last week. We consider it a public service to keep SWNID informed. But $249 per year is way too much to spend on dead trees, so don't think you're getting us back at that price.


Joe D. said...

Here is an article that quite possibly could change the outcome of the election if people actually read it and had an open mind about it. At the same time it might not really affect anything at all... I just found it interesting. I thought you might be interested in it too.

Raymond said...

Joe, thanks for the link...excellent article!