Dionne: Momentum with Rs

E. J. Dionne is perhaps the last surviving organism of what has been for a long time an endangered species: a readable and rational columnist from the political left. So it's no surprise that today he is writing that circumstances are now boosting Republican prospects in November.

However, we think Dionne is a little slow to pick up on how far things have gone up for the Rs and down for the Ds. He cites the generic-party-preference polls as still favoring the Ds and says that at this point in the cycle, that should mean that the Ds will win. But gentle readers will remember that polls of likely voters are now even, that generic party preference is never as important as sentiment toward the incumbent candidate in a congressional district, and that most polls since 1994 have overestimated Democrat voters (Zogby seems more or less alone in adjusting for this).

Still, we agree with Dionne that much will hinge on the direction of news just before the election (as in 1864, for instance). And so we affirm his closing paragraph:

The paradox is that the survival chances of a Republican Party led by a former oilman from Texas will depend in large part on whether gas prices keep falling.