It looks like James Carville may have to act on his remark that if Dems can win the Congress in 2006, they need to rethink the whole idea of their party.
Gallup reports that among likely voters, preference for Republicans and Democrats in Congress is even. Registered voters show a preference for Ds, but recent polls show that likelies matter more than registereds, and even the polls of likelies tend to overestimate Democrat votes.
Maybe worse for the Ds is that Bush's approval ratings are up to 44%, the highest in a year. So much for nationalizing the campaign. The Bushies look really tired these days, but momentum is pushing the elephants forward. Or maybe the donkeys are still stuck in the leftist mud.
Rs still may have some losses, and they've got a lot of work to do. But with lower energy prices, low unemployment, stable interest rates, and no plan from the left on Iraq or Islamofascism save surrender, it could be worse for the party in power.
Many November elections will be close. Turnout will be crucial. The Rs have been very strong on turnout for the last few cycles, conservative churches apparently having more ardent members than trade unions these days.
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