- Yesterday, Mayor Mark Mallory and Police Chief Tom Streicher held a news conference to put Cincinnati's crime problem in perspective. In sum, homicides in Cincinnati are up, but they are up at a rate less than that of most other major cities. Further, other serious crimes are down. On a per-capita basis, Cincinnati experiences less serious crime than most major American cities.
- Meanwhile, Cincinnati School Board Member Melanie Bates, whose husband was killed last week in front of the family's elegant North Avondale home, lashed out that such statements represent an abdication of responsibility on the part of Cincinnati's leaders.
So what do we make of this debate? Is Cincinnati safe or unsafe? We'll analyze the situation this way:
The fundamental point is that cities of all kinds in all places are not safe. This is the case because cities are full of people, and people tend to be sinners, to use a prejudicial, theological term.
This, of course, does not make rural areas more safe than cities. To the degree that they have people in them, rural areas are unsafe. To the degree that rural areas have no people, the point is moot.
So safety is to be found in being totally alone, with just one's own family and no one else as far as the eye can see, right? Well, a we are wont to say, once such a thing existed. In all the world there was one family with two brothers. And the farmer brother killed the shepherd brother. So much for that approach.
So in the light of history, theology and behavioral science, Cincinnati is not safe.
But compared to other cities, it is relatively safe. The statistics that Mallory and Streicher cite are the best data for comparison, and they show Our Fair City to be better than fair in regard to urban safety and the frequency of serious crime.
So what of the Bates murder? What does it tell us? Phil Bates was, by all accounts, a fine, caring, friendly and loving individual. His murder does not at all fit the statistical mode of criminal-on-criminal (largely drug-dealer-on-drug-dealer) violence. We grieve his death and pray for his family's comfort. Any murder is a tragedy. This one is a poignant tragedy.
Further, any crime in any city is unacceptable. Nothing about the present situation justifies indifference toward crime. That Mrs. Bates is adding her politically connected voice to the many that are calling for better protection against crime is appropriate and welcome. Chief Streicher repeated that the greatest impediment to crime prevention in Cincinnati is the lack of jail space. Let's hope that Hamilton County's parsimonious taxpayers heard that message and combine it with the pathos of the Bates murder as they contemplate the upcoming referendum on a sales-tax levy to build a new jail.
But one case does not change the statistical reality. If a person wants to live in the world (as if a person had a choice), then she or he must reckon with the nastiness of the world. Data demonstrate that some places are nastier than others. Cincinnati, though, is not one of those places.
But it can be better than it is.
8 comments:
I'm sure SWNID will be aware of the poll cited by CNN today that puts RG in front of all other GOP hopefuls at 31%. Insane McCain follows with 20% while NO OTHER CANDIDATE reached higher than single digits. This data reinforces the claim that there is no legitimate theocon candidate strong enough to escape the primaries much less win the general election. And now back to you, Fiona.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/09/07/poll/index.html?section=cnn_topstories
Jon,
Well said. Let me just expand on a couple of points.
Humans reason their way to all kinds of unwarranted conclusions based on anecdotal evidence. We certainly see this to be the case when crime is discussed:
Person A: "Crime is epidemic in our city!"
Person B: "Wow! Is that true?"
Person A: "Of course it is! Haven't you read the papers and watched T.V.? It seems like people are being killed and robbed every day. Why just the other day a friend of mine said his cousin was robbed at gunpoint. This is a crime-ridden city, I tell you."
Of course, what person A doesn't stop to realize is that, in comparison to the overall percentage of people inhabiting the city and going about their daily lives, the number of violent crime victims is statistically small. Furthermore, as Streicher keeps reminding Cincinnati, there is more than meets the eye to many violent crime situations. Some recent murder victims in Cincinnati weren't exactly engaging in "clean living" at the time of their untimely deaths.
Having said all that, the Cincinnati Police department is in bad need of some PR help. Tom Streicher made a poor impression in this press conference. He often seems to come across as if he is talking down to his audience; indeed, at times he is downright beligerent. This tone does not help the situation. Streicher can ill afford to come across as unsympathetic and uncaring, even if he is speaking the truth.
A wise man once said something about "speaking the truth in love." It might be something Streicher might wish to try.
This data from a dubious source doesn't reinforce a thing. Just because RG is a Republican does not mean he is a conservative -- no matter how many times SWNID tries to convince his readers otherwise. RG's standing in this poll may be influenced by the fact that we are fast approaching the 5th anniversay of 9/11.
At this time the only potential candidate capable of being president is Tom Tancredo.
Wow, who would have ever thought that the statement, "Cincinnati is bad, not as bad as it could be but still in need of improvement," could cause such angst. Thanks be to Fiona and her adolescent monologue for helping us all peel away the beguiling rhetoric of the the nefarious SWIND and realize just how right she is.
The statement that inspired me the most was, "your gentle readers are smarter than you realize." Ya, SWNID, we're smart! You hear that? And until you give us credit for just how smart we are, well, we'll hold our breath 'till we turn blue!
You should have never tried to pull one over on us with such an incredibly neutral statement. Now you're going to "get it!" We're on to your game, SWNID, we're on to your game.
And now for kevin k:
How is the ORC a "dubious source?" By "dubious source" do you mean "anything not from FOX, Limbaugh or Anne 'I'm madder than you are' Coulter?" RG's place in the standings has been consistent—in a race without Condi Rudi has always been the favored candidate. The only thing that has changed is the level of support for radical theocon candidates which has dwindled from minimal to trifling. The fact that I had to google the name of this Tom Tancredo demonstrates just exactly why he has no chance in a race against a more—how to say this lightly—memorable opponent.
And in order to try to lighten the mood amongst the apparently dismal readership of this blog, I will leave you with some parting words to those comedic sages in Monty Python: "Always look on the bright side of life!"
Not sure this is a fair set of statements from Fiona:
"It's convenient to ignore vast differences in per capita crime rates between 1st world countries, and between various places within the US. It's convenient to ignore suburbia as a category as well."
Crime rates between 1st world countries (ie France and America) are in some ways apples/oranges due to demographics and political policies (failed socialism) in this case). Take the Muslim-torching-cars incident for instance.
And did he ignore the comparisons within the US when he said "In sum, homicides in Cincinnati are up, but they are up at a rate less than that of most other major cities. Further, other serious crimes are down. On a per-capita basis, Cincinnati experiences less serious crime than most major American cities."
And is it fair to compare today's crime to only the 1950s? Why not the 20s or 70s or 1860s? Granted I know next to nothing about the crime rates in any given decade, but perhaps the 1950s was an anomaly, akin to tech stock valuations the day before bubble burst.
On "ignoring suburbia," all the cities cited by streicher have per capita crime rates diluted by suburbs. To what degree, I don't know. So again, demographics come into play. And Streicher and Mallory can't change the demographics themselves, or do anything about the failed cultural revolution. They can address their own failings. Let's talk more about that.
Fiona, lunacy is unbecoming.
The crime rate statistics cited in the article are easily calculated and well documented. One need only count the number of murders and divide by population to determine the murder rate. The crime rate cited by Mallory is the same as reported by news sources and independent firms.
"To reduce the crime rate to a simple acknowledgement of the existence or prevalence of evil, while refusing to acknowledge the failed cultural revolution and failed political and crime management policies."
That's not even a sentence. I can't argue with it because it cannot be true or false.
"Since Cincinnati is relatively safe, and since crime prevalence is merely a function of population concentration, I would suggest you buy a house in Over-the-Rhine."
Hmm, I infer that you believe that crime rate is a function of population concentration. SWNID never said this. Nor did he say that all parts of Cincinnati are equally safe.
Oh yes, prior to 1960, there was no crime in cities in America. Prohibition's moral influence stifled the demand for alcohol in the 1920s, and the 1930s were years of prosperity and safety.
Aside: I'd hardly call Maynard Ferguson's extensive fan base a "cult following" but I don't listen to K-Love, so what do I know about music?
I am certain that the crime rate in North Avondale, where Philip Bates was murdered, has been increasing at a steady rate over the last ten years or so. Prior to that, residents of North Avondale have been relatively immune from the high crime rates of Avondale & South Avondale. I think that what North Avondale residents are noticing is that crime is spilling over into their community from nearby neighborhoods at a rate that is alarming.
Relatively speaking, Cincinnati's crime rate may be lower than other US cities, but the rate relative to pre-2001 riots has raised precipitously. This important statistic is not receiving enough discussion.
I applaud Melanie Bates' efforts to raise awareness about crime and violence in her community and Cincinnati. Police officials will concede that the only way that crime is systematically addressed is when specific communities organize and put pressure on city council and the police force in addition to taking steps to mobilize in their own communities.
Kangae
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