Breaking news is that Iran has seized a group of UK Marines who were engaged in routine inspection duties in Iraqi waters in the volatile and strategic Persian Gulf.
We see this as a potential replay of the Mayaguez affair of 1975. In that instance, a group of Khmer Rouge forces, newly in power in Cambodia, seized an American ship and its crew. They were subsequently liberated by a contingent of US Marine volunteers, in what was certainly the most successful US military operation of the bleak 1970s.
It would appear that Iran, like its forebears in Cambodia, is seeking to assert its power on the world stage in order to mask the very real problems in domestic governance. We expect that the plucky Brits and their devoted American allies, a much more able force than even the potent group who liberated the Mayaguez, will again prevail if diplomacy proves unfruitful.