Sunday, July 13, 2008

Tied, And It's Only July

Rasmussen today reported that its daily tracking poll shows Obama and McCain tied.

Meanwhile, Newsweek has Obama up only 3%, within the margin of error, so calls the race a dead heat and draws attention to the lost glow of the Avatar of Hope.

This development does not surprise SWNID, though it is happening much faster than we thought it might.

Obama's charisma remains formidable, as does the electorate's desire for a break from Republicans. But the sad fact for Democrats is the conservatives have the best side of the issues and McCain has the best resume.


Micah said...

I can't believe I'm probably going to vote for McCain. He'll be a terrible president.

His only redeeming quality is that he's better than anyone else running.

Anonymous said...

Anybody following the swing state, late democratic primaries (West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri among others) knows that Obama spent anywhere from 4 to 10 times the money that Clinton spent, and in virtually all of the states, he had a poor showing anyway.

Much has been made that Obama is likely to spend twice what McCain is going to spend given Obama's fundraising prowess and McCain's reliance on public financing.

Obama's money won't be enough. Despite McCain's major disadvantages as a candidate, Obama is not as popular as the media makes him out to be.

And this tain't American Idol. People are going to vote more sensibly.

Unfortuanely, race will be an issue as well. Nobody will admit it, but many, when they go in the booth, who have been yellow dog democrats for years, won't be yellow dog in this election. The primaries showed populist, rural, and suburban whites moving away from Obama, even as his media depiction was heading towards the heavens, and his delegate lead was shrinking for months.

The only way he wins this election is if McCain gives it to him, with some major faux pas or major skeleton in the closet revealed (e.g., he was running a Bangkok prostitution ring while incarcerated in the Hanoi Hilton). Apart from such scenarios, Obama doesn't have a chance.

"Goodbye Ginsburg" is all I can say. Sorry delaying your retirement didn't work out a little better. Nothing John McCain will ever do will be more important.

Christine said...

McCain has a penchant for saying stupid things and shooting himself in the foot, it's only July. Anything is possible. I'm still wondering if there's a way Hillary will end up as the dem candidate. (Say Obama gets sick or she reveals a major skeleton in his closet.) Stranger things have happened.