Monday, September 08, 2008

Tied? Over!

Well, no sooner do we pronounce that McCain has the mo' and the thing is tied than McCain pulls ahead of Obama in the RCP national poll average.

Newsweek's Andrew Romano has got all the explanations and reasons that can be offered. But we're not entirely sure that he's right about the interpretation: that this is simply what folks expected, i.e. that the election would get close when people started paying attention.

We think Michael Barone is closer to it: McCain has a viable theme for his campaign, but Obama is still trying to run against Dubya.

What continues to make us think that this is decided is that Obama-Biden continue to pound away at liberal themes. That hasn't worked for anyone nationally since LBJ (Clinton and Carter, we hasten to remind ourselves, ran as moderates) and before that worked only for FDR.

SWNID is much more confident of the outcome of this election than in 2000 or 2004 because the Rs aren't saddled with Dubya's weaknesses as a candidate. We're ready to call it on this date, 57 days before the election.

This will test the meaning of "seldom."

1 comment:

Leather Wii said...

And unless you're completely doubt-free on this prediction, it tests the definition of "never."