Leahy Looks Ahead, With an Assist from Kennedy and Kerry

We've heard for awhile that John Roberts is a slam dunk for confirmation. His performance in his show trial before the Senate Judiciary Committee was just too strong for the Ds to mount a quixotic fillibuster, which would only give the Rs popular support for the nuclear option, thereby ending the Ds power to influence appointments until they regain a majority or the place of eternal punishment freezes over, whichever comes first.

But today Patrick Leahy, D-Venus, announced that he will vote to confirm Roberts.

Applause has been heard from conservative quarters. A D has walked the Road to Damascus.

Is this happy conclusion justified? Well, let's note the following:

• Minority leader Harry Reid, D-Incoherence, has stated that he will vote against Roberts. Whatever else the Ds might do in these trying times, they exercise discipline and stay on message. And the leader defines the message. Or at least doesn't deviate from it.
• Leahy's neighbors to the south--Senator Kennedy, D-Chappaquiddick, and Senator Kerry, D-France--have both stated their opposition to Roberts. These are, ahem, among the Ds' greatest living statesmen, so their voices count more than Reid's, especially since Kennedy, D-Glenfiddich, controls much campaign cash.
• Some other Ds seem set to vote in favor, but they are from red states and need the cover at reelection time.

So only Leahy looks like a D from a seat in a safe state who will vote in favor. Wazzup with that?

Radio Brain and Blogger Daddy Hugh Hewitt tonight offered on-air (not on blog as we write, but check back on his site) a hypothesis that SWNID finds as convincing as it is cynical, and so all the more appealing. To wit:

Leahy knows that this round is over. His vote on Roberts doesn't matter for Roberts's sake. So Leahy is looking forward to the next nominee, so that when the Senator from Ben and Jerry's announces his dutiful, thoughtful, principled and full-throated opposition, he can do it with the preface, "I supported the President's choice of John Roberts. I am willing to let the President have a nominee who reflects his judicial philosophy. But this nominee is just too far out of the mainstream."

He's saving his opposition for a nominee who might be successfully fillibustered. Expect some others to do the same when Roberts emerges from committee. And don't think for a minute that this wasn't all planned in caucus.

Meanwhile, somewhere at 2700 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, a gentleman from Texas is saying, "Bring it on."