Right-thinking citizens of Our Fair City will get a good night's sleep on election night this year. The mayoral election pits two strong candidates. But it will not be close. Mallory will crush Pepper. Here's why.
First, as noted before, Mallory tied Pepper in the primary despite Pepper's stronger name recognition and Pepper's bigger budget. Pepper was all over television; Mallory didn't buy the first TV ad. When he goes on TV, Mallory strengthens himself relative to Pepper.
Second, Mallory faced two major African-American opponents, also with excellent name recognition and one with a strong advertising campaign, and still tied Pepper, the only major white candidate. While some of Winburn's support can be expected to go to Pepper, none of Reece's will. Mallory should get all of Reece's votes and at least half of Winburn's.
Third, as he will tell you a million times between now and November 6, Mallory has never been on city council. No candidate in this set of elections has on the strength of a city council record, even though three have served on council, and the reason is obvious. Once people realize that Mallory is a clean slate at 8th and Elm, they'll know how to vote.
Fourth, and probably most important, is that word invoked in both Dubya campaigns: gravitas. On TV Mallory looks calm, competent, decisive, and disciplined, probably because he is all that. Pepper comes across as a youthful, somewhat uncertain guy who is bright enough and sincere enough but doesn't inspire confidence or loyalty. Mallory looks straight at you. Pepper looks at the ground, behind you and to your left. The ability to lead, and even more the ability to get votes, is largely tied to such perceptions. In November, voters will punch the hole next to the name of the adult.
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