Jeff Jacoby (motto: "The Only Republican in Boston Except for Mitt Romney When He's Home") today offers a slice of the conventional wisdom (surprisingly, as Jacoby generally resists the conventional) that the Rs are going down in November because Dubya and Congress have alienated the base.
Meanwhile, David Hill (motto under construction) offers the contrarian but mathematical view that neither party base is ever enough to win an election. Hence, courting the base is a ticket to disaster.
In its characteristically helpful way, RealClearPolitics linked the two articles side by side today. We point them out for our gentle readers' edification.
Of course, we are enamored of most contrarian positions, especially when they have the advantage over their conventional counterparts of adding up. Moreover, we believe that the generally local, candidate-based nature of congressional elections will obtain in 2006, as the Ds show a persistent inability to perform the rare trick of nationalizing a congressional election. Further we think that the Rs will come out in goodly numbers when they get a fresh look at the Woodstock dropouts (Speaker Pelosi? That's a prospect that can nationalize a congressional election!) who will govern if they don't. The many "reforms" and redistricting moves that have protected incumbents won't hurt the Rs either.
But it's a free country, so we urge gentle readers to prognosticate for themselves. After all, we may be wrong, albeit, by definition, seldom.
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